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An assessment of government debt’s impact on fiscal sustainability in Nigeria: Evidence from the CBN (2000–2020).

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Background of the Study:

Government debt is a critical factor influencing fiscal sustainability and overall economic stability. In Nigeria, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been central to managing public debt through various monetary and fiscal policies over the past two decades (Ike, 2023). The accumulation of debt, while serving as a tool for financing development projects, also poses risks such as high debt servicing costs, crowding out of private investment, and increased vulnerability to external shocks. The CBN’s debt management strategies—ranging from domestic borrowing to debt restructuring—have aimed to balance the need for fiscal stimulus with the imperative of maintaining fiscal discipline. However, fluctuations in global financial markets, oil price volatility, and policy inconsistencies have often challenged these efforts, leading to periods of fiscal instability (Nwachukwu, 2024). This study investigates the relationship between government debt and fiscal sustainability, critically assessing the effectiveness of the CBN’s policies in mitigating debt-related risks and supporting long–term economic growth (Obi, 2025).

Statement of the Problem:

Despite efforts by the CBN to manage government debt, Nigeria continues to grapple with fiscal sustainability challenges. High levels of public debt have led to increased debt servicing costs and reduced fiscal space for developmental spending (Ike, 2023). Inconsistent debt management policies and external economic shocks further exacerbate these challenges, undermining fiscal discipline and economic stability. The study seeks to identify the key determinants that affect the relationship between government debt and fiscal sustainability, and to propose strategies to improve debt management practices (Nwachukwu, 2024; Obi, 2025).

Objectives of the Study:

• To evaluate the impact of government debt on fiscal sustainability in Nigeria.

• To analyze the effectiveness of the CBN’s debt management policies.

• To propose recommendations for enhancing fiscal sustainability through improved debt management.

Research Questions:

• How does government debt affect fiscal sustainability in Nigeria?

• What are the main challenges in the CBN’s debt management practices?

• What measures can improve fiscal sustainability through better debt management?

Research Hypotheses:

• H1: Higher levels of government debt negatively impact fiscal sustainability.

• H2: Effective debt management policies positively contribute to fiscal stability.

• H3: External economic shocks exacerbate the adverse effects of high government debt.

Significance of the Study:

This study assesses the impact of government debt on fiscal sustainability in Nigeria through the lens of CBN policies. Its findings will assist policymakers in refining debt management strategies to ensure long–term fiscal stability and sustainable economic growth, contributing to a more resilient national economy (Ike, 2023; Nwachukwu, 2024).

Scope and Limitations of the Study:

This study is limited to evaluating the impact of government debt on fiscal sustainability in Nigeria, focusing on the policies and practices of the CBN and related fiscal indicators.

Definitions of Terms:

• Government Debt: The total amount of money borrowed by the government to finance public expenditures.

• Fiscal Sustainability: The ability of a government to sustain its current spending and debt levels without compromising economic stability.

• Debt Management: Strategies employed by a government or central bank to control and service public debt.

 

 





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